A year or so ago, maybe less, the idea of unemployment going to 12% or more during the current recession seemed highly unlikely. Now that we've seen the course of the recession develop a bit, seen the "stimulus" plan not deliver a lot of stimulus, seen the new administration in Washington and it's cronies in Congress unveil huge spending and tax programs like the Climate Change bill and the various healthcare bills, and seen the generally anti-entrepreneurship and anti-small business attitude in Washington it is not so far-fetched at all to talk about 12% unemployment not only being reached but lasting for some time.
Here's one perspective on where employment is heading. It's from economist David Rosenberg as reported by James Pethokoukis on his blog at Reuters in a post titled: "12 reasons unemployment is going to (at least) 12 percent".
Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg, formerly of Merrill Lynch, thinks the unemployment rate is going to at least 12 percent, maybe even 13 percent. Optimists, Rosenberg explains, underestimate the incredible damage done to the labor market during this downturn.
Whether you agree or disagree, it is a scenario for which we need to plan in the event that the analysis is correct. If you are an entrepreneur, what would this mean for you? Is it bad news? Or is it opportunity as large numbers of candidates are available in the labor pool to fill needs that you may have? Does it mean that you can keep a job in the U.S. that might have gone overseas? Does it mean that you have access to skills at a price you might not have been able to afford otherwise? Is this all necessarily bad news (it clearly ain't all good news, but I'm convinced that where there's bad news there's almost always a pony buried somewhere nearby).